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The North and the Search for Oil!

Started by Ete, August 28, 2006, 04:20:35 PM

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Ete

The North and the Search for Oil!

By

Zayyad I. Muhammad

zaymohd@yahoo.com

Of recent, two issues are dominating debates in the north - the agitation for power shift and the much-talked search for oil in the north; the latter has raised so many questions than answers in the minds of the common northerners and indeed many Nigerians: why are northern leaders eager to search for oil now? Is it purely for economic reason?  Is it just politics or simply the usual Nigerian elites? way of approaching issues? If it is for economic reasons, would the common man on the streets benefits from it? Would it not be a replica of what is happening in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, where poverty is rampaging like a wild fire in the midst of plenty? While selected few, are egging from the circumstances.

Out of the forty-six years of Nigeria?s political independence; northern elites had power on their grab for nearly thirty-eight years; what is boggling the minds of northern talakawas is; what had stopped the elites then, in making a true resolute effort in the search for oil in north, despite the fact that, preliminary geological survey had shown evidence of oil existence? Though, no right thinking man of understanding can  carry-on, on  a white elephant project just to satisfy regional inclination  at the expense of greater Nigeria, but has the present crop of  northern  leaders done to the north what would have freed the poorer of the poor   from the prison of poverty to an unlocked future? The answer is anybody?s guess? one may not be out of point to say: nearly most elites in the north have their legs wobbling, now that Obasanjo have systematically shown to them how to use power ? despites the hitherto long period of northern elites   domination of Nigeria?s political space; the region is virtually crawling behind the rest of the other regions of Nigeria, in almost all sector Nigerian economy.      

There are strong convictions that oil will be found, or indeed, it do exist in Lake Chad part of Nigeria; for the reason that Niger republic and Chad have stroke oil on their part of the Lake. But how will the whole process going to be taken? Is the Northern Nigeria Development Corporation (NNDC) that seems spearheading the project going to approach the issue ?off-the- shelve?? Who are the prospective technical partners? Would real business men from the north, who are always at poles apart with long term investment, be willing to invest in the project ;  a project that probably is their grand children would benefit from; how about environmental issues? ? It is a known fact that Lake Chad is considerably shrinking; how about the locals, whose livelihood is sustained by the Lake? Nevertheless, the recent production sharing agreement between the NNPC and NNDC is a welcome step.

Though, the world is at a speed in search of cheaper and cleaner energy, when hydrocarbon is stroke in the Lake Chad part of Nigeria, it would not be only beneficial to the north but greater Nigeria- more petrodollars to the nation, more jobs and opportunities and technology transfer. But some observers are of the view that, there is strong correlation between oil and corruption in Nigeria; others are also of the opinion, Nigeria?s continuous reliance on oil as the locomotive of the economy; is continuing to make Nigeria?s economy system, a ?series? built-up system; where the failure of the ?source? system, means the bringing down of the economy down to its knees. The current NNPC ethanol project is one among the many ways to re-design Nigeria?s economy into a ?parallel? based system, where a situation of dwindled oil price in the international market will not necessary mean an instant collapse of the economy.  Does the NNDC determined effort to search for oil in the north means the north is completely leapfrogging away from boosting agro-allied industries and developing human resource?- This is the most immediate need of the region. Is oil the answer to the current level of poverty in the north? - most countries in the world, who are now considerably having the  fastest growing economy and high GDP achieved such through purely human resources development. Or are the political leaders in the north foresee a Nigeria, where politics of oil would in future be the order of the day; when you have oil you control the polity; but common Nigerians would not in any way pray for such, but the typical Nigerian politician would love such scenarios or something similar, that would give them unmerited political advantage.  Nevertheless the start of Oil exploration in   northern Nigeria, will means a new entirely different operating environment that would be easy to operate on, without adverse environmental destruction and opportunity for Nigeria to have a new start in oil exploration.


Zayyad I. Muhammad writes from Jimeta, Nigeria.
zaymohd@yahoo.com

Ete

Yea right Zayyad  :twisted:  The day they discover oil in the north, the northern leaders will come to the table immediately and call the cessation from Nigeria.  
This Zayyad is living in lala land. He actually thinks oil discovered in the north will be to the benefit of all Nigerians? hahahahahahaa!!!!!! Well, when it happens, northerners will begin singing a different tune as usual. The issue of derivation will not even be entertained. They'll get 100% proceeds from it, and on top of that call for independence.

Also, the mid belt states that they consider part of the north, will now be properly distinguished and as middle belt and seperate from the core north.

Muhsin

Quote from: "Ete"Yea right Zayyad  :twisted:  The day they discover oil in the north, the northern leaders will come to the table immediately and call the cessation from Nigeria.  
This Zayyad is living in lala land. He actually thinks oil discovered in the north will be to the benefit of all Nigerians? hahahahahahaa!!!!!! Well, when it happens, northerners will begin singing a different tune as usual. The issue of derivation will not even be entertained. They'll get 100% proceeds from it, and on top of that call for independence.

Also, the mid belt states that they consider part of the north, will now be properly distinguished and as middle belt and seperate from the core north.

Ete?Ete?Ete?
What a wonderful person you are? Always.........here...and...also....there....? You easily got me smile and astonish. So keep it up
Get to know [and remember] Allah in prosperity & He will know  [and remember] you in adversity.

HUSNAA

Quote from: "Ete"Yea right Zayyad  :twisted:  The day they discover oil in the north, the northern leaders will come to the table immediately and call the cessation from Nigeria.  
This Zayyad is living in lala land. He actually thinks oil discovered in the north will be to the benefit of all Nigerians? hahahahahahaa!!!!!! Well, when it happens, northerners will begin singing a different tune as usual. The issue of derivation will not even be entertained. They'll get 100% proceeds from it, and on top of that call for independence.

Also, the mid belt states that they consider part of the north, will now be properly distinguished and as middle belt and seperate from the core north.

Ete Ete Ete....
Why are you always so pessimistic? Is it yr nature to see and think the worst about everything, or is it just where Nigeria is concerned?

I am telling you that you are dead wrong when you said that northerners will come to the table and demand cessation from Nigeria. I dont know if you are the only one who thinks like that or whether it is a considerable number of southerners. If a number of southerners think like that, it is not surprising because this is exactly how they feel about sharing southern oil wealth with northerners and therefore believe that we will reciprocate in kind once oil is discovered. However that is not the case. The reason why we northerners are so anxious to dig up 'pay dirt' is to do away with the contemptuous attitude of the southerners who think that we are living on their largesse.

Also one of the reasons why so much interest is right now focused on the north's potential as an oil producer is because of the instability in the
delta region of Nigeria, as production has been disrupted by 25% and that's a lot of dollars down the drain. In the past, the same OBJ govt was reluctant to invest in oil production in the north because the south was not anxious for the north to 'develop' in that direction. One of the ironies of fate is that oil dividends reaped in the delta region is an environmentally raped and ravaged southern Nigeria populated by gun toting disgruntled youths. These youths are now putting a spoke in the oily wheel of the economy. This has forced the OBJ regime to revise its earlier decision of not investing in the north for the possibility of more barrels of oil especially now that it makes about US$90 million a day.
What about whether the northern masses will benefit from the oil wealth? Definitely!!!

We have lots and lots of bad eggs as leaders in the north. However we must remember that people are becoming more and more aware of the rights as citizens of Nigeria. Also what is happening and has happened in the Delta is definitely a lesson for us to take heed from. Any oil company signing a deal for exploration rights must have to take the environment into consideration. We all know from its adverts that Shell is anxious to be seen as environment friendly after it endured a lot of flak for its past environmental negligence.

Another thing that must be said is that all the poverty in the delta region mustnt be blamed on the Fed Govt or the oil companies. Three quarters of the oil agonies suffered by the south southerners were the result of the thieving nature of their local leaders and the state governors both in the past and the present. It was the realization of this that led to the lynching of the  crooked Ogoni chiefs for which Ken Saro Wiwa ended up forfeiting his life.
Ghafurallahi lana wa lakum

Ete

Husnaa, ok......This was just talking point. No harm intended.
But actually, the writer of the article is not optimistic that if oil was discovered in the north that it will improve the lives of ordinary people.  He thinks things may get worse even as the crooked leaders of Arewa will go all out to chop reckelessly, to the average man's detriment.

I disagree with parts of your assessment of the oil issue regarding the reluctance of the South to want the north to prosper in that direction. How can you say that? Since when has the south called the shots or dictated the pace of northern progress in Nigeria?  Since independence as you are well aware, the north has had power far more than anybody else in Nigeria. Obj is the only South westerner that has been privilaged to rule twice. The second time around, he was thrown into the office he currently occupies by the same north that hoped to control things from behind the scenes.  So the notion that Obj refused to invest in oil exploration in the north is inaccurate.  Most northern states get higher allocation than the southern states oil producing states, and it had been that way for a long time before Obasanjo came on board.

The Niger-Delta crisis has not been properly handled by Obj's administration at all. I give him an F in that area.  But that problem is an inherited problem. It existed during Buhari, IBB, Abacha, and Abdul Salaam's governments. As a matter of fact, Abacha executed Saro Wiwa over this Niger-Delta issue hoping he could silence that community.  Is that anyway to handle a crisis situation as if they concerns being voiced are not legitimate ones.

It may be true that part of the problem also is the theiving leaders of the Niger-Delta who collect allocation money from the FG and squander it all on themselves.  That isn't where the problem begins and ends though.  True, they are crooks and they keep siphoning the money they get from government while the masses groan in pain, yet the government continues to hand off money to the same crooks.  What does that say about the system as a whole?  I read an article written by an IBB apologist one time who insisted that IBB had good programs for Nigeria, but the people under him that implemented them were the real thieves because they stole funds for the programs and subsequently all the programs crumbled.  That is sort of the same argumnent you are making here.....which is,  the government has fulfilled its obligation to the Delta people, but their own leaders are to blame for their problems.  This is a rather simplistic attitude to a very volatile situation.

If the government had any sense at all, they should have exercised jurisdiction initiative-wise over this territory and not just leave it in the hands of incompetent crooks.  For the amount of money they claim to allocate to the region,  there is no governmental oversight to see exactly how these funds are being expended. If crimes were being committed, people should be in jail much earlier so that it serves as a deterent to others.  They took none of these steps. Which responsible government commits money to a place and then looks away unconcerned and unbothered about what transpires thereafter? Oil companies will behave in anyway they like if they know they'll get away with it.

There are way too many incompetent people in leadership in African as a whole. There are way too many, and this is why the society is lost in time.  In Nigerian for example, you'll see people with no skillset heading a department or ministry where sound decision making is critical to its optimal functionality.  I think El Rufai voiced that sentiment clearly recently when he practically called the Minister of sports a dummy.  In a nutshell, he said someone heading the sports ministry ought to be knowledgable in sports management, possess excellent marketing skills,  have great knowledge of process improvement as well as strong organizational skills.  I agreed with him.  If the government follows similar guidelines in appointing people to take charge of things, we would not have the Niger-Delta catastrophe on our hands because results of proper leadership and initiatives will be visible, and the much needed relief will be available to people.

I do not think people in Nigeria are aware of their rights as you say. Remeber I was in Nigerian  recently, and I saw how confused people were.  You'd practically have to explain to some people that their right was being violated before they understood that you are for real. I found that odd.

I had to explain to a tailor from Bayelsa that ex-governor Alamasie was bad and gave detailed examples before he finally agreed.  I am sure you are aware of reports of several Bayelsa indegenes protesting seriously and calling for the release of Gov. Alamasie.  Many of them are as wretched as dung beetles, and never gained a dime from that crooked governor.  However, they were out on the streets protesting and demanding for his release.  This is part of the extreme ignorance that is so shocking when displayed publicly.  I honestly thought or believed that many people in Nigeria are not with their faculties intact the minute they begin talking.  Maybe its hardship or years of extreme frustration, but honestly, many Nigerians are crazy but don't know, even those supposedly doing well.  Brigadier/Senator David Mark is  one of such mentally deranged people.  I am not sure what his own problem is. You might be tempted to think he smokes pot because his eyes are so brown always, but after listening to the crap that escapes his mouth and finish wondering how on earth such a character sits in Nigerian senate chamber, you'll eventually conclude that several donkey years of irrelevant Army work combined with Ogogoro can indeed turn some people to Lunatics.  Not just him, look at General Red Scorpion Adekunle.....he does not even know the war has been over.  In all his interviews, he still talks of commanding some battalion and invading Biafra.  Even if the question is about development or the economy, he'll begin telling you about 13th mechanised infantry Divion and the raid of Aba town in 1967. Is that normal?

alhaji_aminu

Salam

There is no bigger obstacle to development in NIgeria than OIL. This may seem contradictory in light of the fact that oil will increase Nigeria's revenue, but it is true. There is nothing bad you could think of in NIgeria that is not caused by this easy money.

I dont wish to go into explaining this now but I trust many others echo the same sentiment. Just as Oil money is stolen from the Delta, Oil money will be stolen in the Chad or Gongola Basin.

Nigeria should look at nations like in the far east or even others in Africa like Ghana and Egypt ( with little mineral wealth) to appreciate the fact that economic growth is not tied to petro dollars.

We have enough human resource to succeed and I believe we will.....

Barde

Quote
There are strong convictions that oil will be found, or indeed, it do exist in Lake Chad part of Nigeria; for the reason that Niger republic and Chad have stroke oil on their part of the Lake.  

That isn't enough reason. Technically, it has been established that for an oil to be found in commercial quantities, the sedimentary basin  must compose of  five factors, popularly called the magic five. One of them is the presence of an impermeable cap rock at the topmost part of the formation, without it, the oil will migrate continously until it reaches a blockage or something to prevent it from further movement. So once the cap rock is not there, only traces of oil can be seen in that basin. That is one of the reasons why the search for oil in the north was discontinued, their arguement was that the Oil migrated to Chad and Niger thereby leaving some traces.

I dont know of Zayyad's Profession, but this issue is been hijacked by politicians who go about commenting without a technical backing. The Oil found in Niger and Sudan shouldnt be enough reason to resume oil search in the North, rather the reasons tabled by the consultants who took over the exploration, which are among others;

1) The Survey system used: The earlier companies used 2D seismic survey, which is obsolete and cannot reveal the actual subsurface structure of the basin, considering the fact that the rest of the world has since been using 4D seismic not even 3D seismic.

2) Minimum depth: They also argued that the companies did not drill to the required minimum depth after which the oil could be reached.

3) Then the third reason given by Alh Ali Alkali, the GMD of NNDC, he argued that all the companies that were exploring in the north already have blocks that are producing in the niger delta, so they didn't dedicate themselves searching where the reserves are not yet proven.

The reservoir is just like a human being, it begins to decline as soon as it reaches it peak, then eventually it will stop producing completely. It is better for NNDC to invest half of the Money to revive our agricultural sector, which is been neglected by our leaders than investing so much in a venture that may not yield any profit.
im