HABA JANAR - LET IT GO MANA

[Dan-Borno]

bakangizo, let us make a simple assumption here from
past records.

South-West which comprises of (Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun,
Osun, Ekiti States)  has 12,198,605 registered voters.

South-East zone   which comprises of (Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu,
Imo, Anambra)  has 7,258,030 registered voters.

South-South comprising of (Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross River,
Delta, Edo, Akwa Ibom) also registered 8,991,625.

North-West with states like (Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna,
Katsina, Kano, Jigawa) has 15,161,193 registered voters.

North-East comprises of (Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Borno,
Yobe, Taraba)  has 8,823,766 registered voters

North-Central comprising of (Niger, Nasarawa, Kwara, Kogi,
Plateau, Benue, Abuja) has 8,389,803 registered voters

now, lets put it this way

South-West Zone         12,198,605

South-East zone            7,258,030

South-South                  8,991,625

North-West                  15,161,193

North-East                     8,823,766

North-Central                 8,389,803

Let us assume that Buhari has some portions of North-West and
North-East kamar yadda Bakangizo yace, his strong holds are Kano
Bauchi, Katsina and may be some parts of Borno States.  The total
votes of NW & NE is 23,984,959 while the remaining zones will
produce 36,838,063 votes

Out of 23,984,959 votes, lets assume Buhari takes 50% which is
11,992,479 votes which cannot produce president for this country.

During the 2007 Presidential Election, General Muhammadu Buhari
with the support from ANPP (which is stronger than CPC even as at
now) was only able to get away with 6,605,299 votes while its opposition party
and the largest party in Africa (I am not part of it) scored 24,638,063
which produces HE Umaru Yar'adua.

Ya jama'an arewa, mu duba da kai, mu daina tunanin cewa arewa
it kadai ce a najeriya wanda zata yi zabe, mu rika la'akari da cewa
there are other zones and elections will be held just as it is been
held here too.

my observation and clarion call to the people is that we should not
allow General Buhari to contest the election, especially when it is
assumed that he is the candidate to represent the north.  Lets go for
a more acceptable candidate, some one that can cut across other regions
and come up with more votes.

We wish well for Buhari, he has served this country with all his strength
faithfully and his reward will be in heaven - JANAR A HAKURA DON ALLAH.     

[Suleman]

Dan Borno wadannan figures din kuma daga ina? Were they maurice Iwu verified at all? If not they are not valid  ;D

[bakangizo]

I like the analysis, DB, even though the I don't know where you got your figures from  ;D Anyway, the figures might be contested, but the general idea of the analysis is right, though you didn't mention the fact that he would get votes in the south even if not a lot.

[Dave_McEwan_Hill]

Very thoughtful and constructive post from Dan Borno. This is the sort of thinking that will allow Nigeria to move forward.

[IBB]

True

[bakangizo]

Are some posts deleted from this thread? I can't see some of my (and suleman's) posts. Abi my system is doing wuruwuru for me?

[Dan-Borno]

gaskiya nima jiya i was thinking the same, but then i let it
go.  there is a reply i did to both you and suleman nd its
not appearing at all.

BANG!  BANG!! BANG!!!

To, former Military Ruler, General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida
and former Vice President to Olusegun Obasanjo, Alhaji Atiku
Abubakar have all declared their intention to contest the 2011
Presidential Election under the platform of PDP.

There is the possibility of them decamping to another party if
Goodluck has upperhand during the primaries.

If they did decamp, the only party available and ready to play
to their gallery is the ANPP.

If ANPP accepted them, then, there is also the possibility of both
IBB and Atiku to create an alliance.

If they create an alliance between themselves, then Buhari's hope
has been dashed by yet another obstacle.

[bakangizo]

If they did decamp, the only party available and ready to play
to their gallery is the ANPP.

If ANPP accepted them, then, there is also the possibility of both
IBB and Atiku to create an alliance.

If they create an alliance between themselves, then Buhari's hope
has been dashed by yet another obstacle.

Har ka bani dariya  ;D Theories. But nothing is impossible in Nigerian politics. Okay, I know IBB is a "bigwig", and would be an asset for any party one way or the other, but won't it be folly for ANPP to accept another 'foreigner' just close to election and hand him/them the party's ticket at the expense of those who have been in the party and have toiling for long? The ANPP as a party has been used and dumped by such for so many times you can't even count. How many people have used the party as a ladder to gain political office only to dump it and return to thier former parties while still maintaining the position? So I would advise the party against accepting such new comers. Once beaten...

[Dan-Borno]

yeah, just as you said, nothing is impossible.
sometimes, as a party, you have no option
than to keep an alternative B in case the A
didnt make it due to disqualification or any other
issue that could incapacitate him from contesting.

another issue is, the more the candidates in a
party, the better its chances of winning in a
general election.  the assumption is that, each
candidate has its own followers.

[gogannaka]

How come no one raised shekarau's declaration here?
Not even Danborno.
Since the Borno and Yobe states have formally boycotted shekarau's declaration i would assume you have changed your stand as well.
I learnt Yobe and Borno will support GEJ.

[EMTL]

Assalamu alaikum, kai ma kasan BDN ba ruwanshi da IBB, ko Buhari su suna cikin malfar JEG...

[Dan-Borno]

GGNK & EMTL, i cannot speak for the people of
Borno/Yobe, but all i can say is, politics is all about
understanding, giving me what i want and i give you
what you want - kasan north-east has always been
marginalised by kano/katsina/kaduna boys.

LATEST ON BUHARI
the general seems to stand by his words, he declared
that no matter how many times he is going to fail in
election, he will continue contesting, because this is
democracy.

Allah ya ba Janar hakuri.

[bakangizo]

How come no one raised shekarau's declaration here?
Not even Danborno.
Since the Borno and Yobe states have formally boycotted shekarau's declaration i would assume you have changed your stand as well.
I learnt Yobe and Borno will support GEJ.

Kai kuwa goga, this is buhari's thread.  ;D  No point mentioning Shekarau's declaration. I thought the whole discussion was centered around Buhari's politics. About Borno and Yobe's absence at Shekarau's declaration  (I won't call it boycott), isn't it early days to assume any meaning to it? I mean, it is normal that whenever an aspirant is having this sort of 'declaration', not everyone in the party attends. Some because they may have same ambition, some simply to avoid showing open support for a particular aspirant.  But you are right about the story going round that Borno (or rather Modu sheriff) is supporting Jatau mai Sa'a. We will see.

LATEST ON BUHARI
the general seems to stand by his words, he declared
that no matter how many times he is going to fail in
election, he will continue contesting, because this is
democracy.

Allah ya ba Janar hakuri.

Wa yaga Abraham Lincoln ;D Ko ba shi bane aka ce yayi takara sau 99 kafin yaci zabe?

[HUSNAA]

Because of his past record, I doubt that IBB will be an asset to any party. Besides why is he so bent on having a go at the presidency again? History has shown us that he makes the most phenomenal blunders.

[bakangizo]

He would be an asset one way or the other. His wealth, experience and connection would certainly come in handy. And with the totally naive, N100-a-vote Nigerian electorates, who knows? ;D