Nigeria will fail in 15 years time: NIC reports

[_Waziri_]

Dear Forumnites,

Been away on field work designing some computer network before I caught up with Flu that rendered me sick for days. But I am now strong. I can still remember having promised Mallamt to contribute to the thread about what is happening in Arewa in terms of dividends of democracy. I will still do that. But then I feel the need also to start this thread  giving its importance to Nigeria as a nation and Nigerians as its subjects residing here home and abroad alike.

Recently a certain American National Intelligence Council released a report which predicts the collapse of Nigerian Nation in the next 15 years to come. Thisday Newspaper puts the news thus:

The United States National Intelligence Council in a document entitled "Map-ping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future" has predicted "outright collapse of Nigeria" as a nation-state within the next 15 years.
In a swift response, President Olusegun Obasanjo described the prediction as "glib(ly) talk" arising from "dubious or diabolical benchmarks."
On page 17 of the report under the heading "Downside Risks," the US Intelligence claimed that "while currently Nigeria's leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja.


"The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner. If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West Africa region.
"Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilising entire neighbourhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilised. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years - if ever - and not without massive international assistance."
According to the introductory part of the report captioned "summary", "the National Intelligence Council recently convened a group of top US experts on Sub-Saharan Africa to discuss likely trends in the region over the next 15 years. The group discussed several major issues or drivers that will affect Africa, including globalization and its impact on political development and economic growth, patterns of conflict, terrorism, democratisation etc.

http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=18299

The full report is obtainable from this link:
http://www.cia.gov/nic/confreports_africa_future.html

Please I will expect a dispassionate analysis of the situation from the forumnites as I am now under maximum pressure and short of time, I will come back later with my view.

Thank you once again
I remain most grateful

[Dave_McEwan_Hill]

An interesting post from Waziri.
Forumites should be aware the the US has a major interest in Nigeria as Nigeria is one of the world's biggest oil producers. The US needs a stable Nigerian government to ensure that Nigeria's oil is available to the US and the West. Within the next ten years the oil situation is going to become very critical as the rapid industrialisation of China means that there will not be enough oil to easily go round and advanced economies are totally reliant on oil use.
Should Nigeria descend into chaos it is almost certain that the US would move in to"stabilise" the country. They would then find themselves in control of Nigeria's vast oil deposits - just as they are now in control of Iraq's oil (and are making plans to grab Iran's oil).
Be very wary of any American troops in Nigeria for whatever given reason. They are probably in to gather information and geographical knowledge.

[mlbash]

from what's happening now all over the world, i believe the US are not to be underestimated. they really make a good job in whatever they do, this is examplified by their successful destruction of Iraq. therefore the report is not suprising based on their keen interest in oil, which is not only abundant but tagged 'sweet oil' due to it's less sulphur content and hence less cost of purification.
we don't want any civil war in Nigeria, 'cos there is no need. let's just separate peacefully afterall, it was the colonial masters that joined us together, not that we belong together!

[analyst]

Salam,

I strongly agreed with the investigation done by US. I dont expect Nigeria to even survive for four more years if this mad man (OBJ) is a live.

[Maqari]

Peace ya'll.

 Although I find 'some' elements of truth in NIC's report, I do not at all subscribe to Kabir's opinions. its absolutely preposterous, unscientific, and a radical leep in reason to base the survival of a "nation" on one person or administration
even if that person happens to be OBJ and that nation happens to be Nigeria. your statements are super exergerrated and vacuous of common sense bro.
will touch up on this when time allows.

One

[neozizo]

Dave_McEwan_Hill wrote:
Should Nigeria descend into chaos it is almost certain that the US would move in to"stabilise" the country. They would then find themselves in control of Nigeria's vast oil deposits - just as they are now in control of Iraq's oil (and are making plans to grab Iran's oil).
Be very wary of any American troops in Nigeria for whatever given reason. They are probably in to gather information and geographical knowledge.

I agree with Dave that the US has the most to gain from a collapse of Nigeria,thus it would not be surprising to me if it orchestrates the collapse of Nigeria (and i suspect a 15 year timetable)so as to actualize a grand design of controling a great portion of the world's oil resourses.

I only now hope and pray that this prediction doesn't come to pass.
PS
even without the report of theNIC,it is glaringiy clear for all to see from recent chain of events that have been ocuring in Nigeria(civil unrest,religious and ethnic intolerance,coruption,bad governance,etc)that the country would ultimately reach a point when it would be able to hold-up no more and eventually collapse.
So what are we(people and government of nigeria) doing/going to do about it??
I hope we wake up before it's TOO LATE!!

[Penjab]

I DO NOT THINK SO!

[neozizo]

The US and Britain closed down there embassies in nigeria giving reasons of insecurity situations(which we are yet to witness in nigeria).

Meanwhile,these super-power countries are currently facing a real and grave security situation on there home soils.
Rather than advise and dissuade us micro-power contries to contine to visit these danger hot-spots,they are actually doing the opposite-encouraging the world to continue to come to there counties despite growing security concerns,for example following the wake of bombings and attempted bombings in london,there sports secretary managed to convince an Italian football club to tour the city after initially cancelling there visit to England fearing for their security.

Typical Amerisan-British double standards. :shock:
They wish for us what they dont wish for themselves while claiming to be friends who have our best intrests in there hearts! :x

[neozizo]

For all ya'll unrepentant skeptics of the grand designs of America's schemes of world domination...peep this:-

http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf
See related news report:
http://www.sundayherald.com/print27735

[Dave_McEwan_Hill]

Do not underestimate the completely unscrupulous nature of the present American administration. It has decided on world domination and will stop at nothing in its attempts to gain this. It believes that the deaths of thousands of innocents in Iraq and other places is justified in this aim.
Thankfully the American people are waking up - or some of them. But as Bush cheated to win the White House the first time and had rigged all subsequent inquiries into this there is no certaintay that the Republicans will be removed from power. Even if they are removed the dark forces which control the media in America will try to ensure the Democrats follow the same agenda
The piece that Zizo has indicated from the Sunday Herald ( a fiercely independent and honest Scottish newspaper) tells the truth. Forumites would be well advised to regularly check into its website and that of the Independent - another very honest UK newspaper.  

David McEwan Hill

[HUSNAA]

For all ya'll unrepentant skeptics of the grand designs of America's schemes of world domination...peep this:-

http://www.newamericancentury.org/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf
See related news report:
http://www.sundayherald.com/print27735

Gosh! Who's got time to read that 90 page, A4 paper, font size 10 report on America's de(of)fences?
Anyway, I dont believe America will directly attack Nigeria. But the report it brought out is really an agenda to quicken the momentum of the destabilization that is already becoming apparent in Nigeria, so that it takes just a fifth of the 15 yrs for Nigeria to descend into chaos. That way, they can find themselves masters of the Nigerian oil resources as Dave succintly wrote much sooner than anticipated.
For those of you who are not cynics, remember, man proposes, God disposes. There is still hope for us yet.

[moray]

If Nigeria became an Islamic State, it would remain united. It would also ensure that Nigerians of all religions could live with justice and dignity.

[tofutokwa]

and to all African Countries suffering from devastation and Chaos. it was true to my heart. Though it may sound hard, I wish Nigerian People will find a peaceful way of keeping the nations united not for themselves but for the future generations :)