Removing yar'adua

[gogannaka]

Here is an analysis on how to remove yar'adua from office and the intricacies involved.
A pretty fair assessment. Enjoy:

As the Alhaji Yayale Ahmed-led six-man ministerial committee prepares to submit its report on President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's health to the Executive Council of the Federation (EXCOF) tomorrow, the belief that this may lead to the removal of the President may be far-flung.

Contrary to the popular notion that all it will take to remove Yar'Adua from office is for EXCOF to declare him incapacitated in accordance with Section 144 of the Constitution, THISDAY investigations have shown that the political calculations are becoming very tricky and uncertain.

Section 144 provides that the President or Vice-President shall cease to hold office if (a) by a resolution passed by two-thirds majority of all the members of the Executive Council of the Federation it is declared that the President or Vice-President is incapable of discharging the functions of his office; and (b) the declaration is verified, after such medical examination as may be necessary, by a medical panel established under subsection (4) in its report to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Subsection (2) states: "Where the medical panel certifies in the report that in its opinion the President or Vice-President is suffering from such infirmity of body or mind as renders him permanently incapable of discharging the functions of his office, a notice thereof signed by the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives shall be published in the Official Gazette of the Government of the Federation."

While subsection (3) says "The President or Vice-President shall cease to hold office as from the date of publication of the notice of the medical report pursuant to subsection (2) of this section", subsection (4) prescribes that the medical panel to which this section relates shall be appointed by the President of the Senate, and shall comprise five medical practitioners in Nigeria: (a) one of whom shall be the personal physician of the holder of the office concerned; and  (b) four other medical practitioners who have, in the opinion of the President of the Senate, attained a high degree of eminence in the field of medicine relative to the nature of the examination to be conducted.
But the emerging scenarios, painted to THISDAY by key politicians yesterday, point to a more complex web of intrigues.
 
Scenario One
The six-man committee will in its report, full of diplomatic finesse, thank the government of Saudi Arabia for hosting the President, saying that they did not succeed in meeting him as he was taken back to Nigeria.
The ministers will be expected to debate the report and the fact that, as at press time, the Acting President, Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives and the National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have not been able to see Yar'Adua, despite his return to Nigeria in an air ambulance last week.

Depending on the outcome of the governors' meeting today, the ministers are expected to vote that the President is incapable of discharging his duties. Most of the ministers were nominated by the governors.
Following the vote by EXCOF, the Senate President will constitute a medical panel to examine the President.
However, the problem the medical panel will face is their inability to meet Yar'Adua, given the antecedents of the last 100 days during which the family has not given access to anybody to see him.

Though the family is considering giving access to Acting President Goodluck Jonathan tomorrow, it is clear that they will block any medical team from seeing the president knowing that the verdict of the medical team could end Yar'Adua's presidency quickly.
Under this scenario, the panel will be unable to file any professional medical report as it cannot declare the President permanently incapacitated without examination or access to his medical record which his family is unlike to release.

The panel, it is also being projected, may examine the President and declare him temporarily incapacitated, meaning no constitutional provision can be employed to remove him from office.
The work of the medical panel will, therefore, be dead on arrival.
However, if the panel reports an inability to meet Yar'Adua, opponents could see an unconstitutional action by him in blocking access and could opt for an impeachment process.

But the process will require an impeachment notice to Yar'Adua, which is unlikely to be answered, and then a vote in the National Assembly whether or not the proceedings should go on.
Under this scenario, THISDAY checks revealed that while an impeachment is possible in the Senate, it is unlikely to gain the support of two-thirds of National Assembly members.
It is also feared that if impeachment proceedings are commenced against Yar'Adua, he may begin to win sympathy in some parts of the country and Jonathan may be portrayed as ambitious and as going after a man who is already down.
 
Scenario Two
Yayale submits the Saudi Arabia trip report to EXCOF and ministers are unable to reach a decision or the majority does not support any action on Section 144, leaving Jonathan in power essentially as sole administrator.
With an ill President and with the Vice-President in control as Acting President without a VP, Nigeria will be running an incomplete presidency. Jonathan will be unable to travel, except the National Assembly comes up with a law that will allow an Acting President to appoint another Acting President while he is away from the country.
This could leave the North without a representative at the commanding height of government and could also lead to a situation where Jonathan will be presiding over officials loyal to Yar'Adua, not to him.
 
Scenario Three
Another option being considered by the politicians is what a minister called an "Ariel Sharon" or a "win-win" situation: Jonathan will continue as Acting President until the next presidential election is held – if Yar'Adua is still unable to go back to work.
This, according to those advancing this option, will lay to rest any need for EXCOF to apply Section 144 or the National Assembly to commence impeachment proceedings under Section 143.

Ariel Sharon was Israel's Prime Minister until January 4, 2006 when he had stroke and went into a permanent vegetative state.
Consequently, the Deputy Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, was officially made the Acting Prime Minister of Israel until parliamentary elections were held on March 28, 2006 as scheduled.
There is yet no official statement on the true state of health of Yar'Adua, but it is generally believed that he is very ill as he is yet to be seen in public for over three months.

A governor from the Southern part of the country told THISDAY yesterday that there was nothing stopping Jonathan from exercising full presidential powers even if he is not confirmed as the substantive President before the next general election.
"So far, he has not shown unbridled ambition to be substantive President. If he does, it may backfire," he said.
The final scenario, quipped a minister, "is in the hands of God. He alone knows who will live and who will not. He alone is capable of pulling a last-minute miracle to restore the health of the President."

[Dan-Borno]

هذا الوضع يتطلب تدخل الله. ما نحن الشماليين
لا افهم ان نقوم به يضر أكثر مما ينفع لهذا
البلد عن طريق إخفاء المرض من السيد الرئيس.

[gogannaka]

هذا الوضع يتطلب تدخل الله. ما نحن الشماليين
لا افهم ان نقوم به يضر أكثر مما ينفع لهذا
البلد عن طريق إخفاء المرض من السيد الرئيس.

LOL,
Please translate for the sake of those of us that cannot read arabic.

[Muhsin]

What brought Arabic into that matter, DB? Na da tin be don go beyond u?  ??? ::)

[maikyau]

DB
OYO (ON YOUR OWN) Translate

[Dan-Borno]

what is wrong with you guys, when did you forget your
alma mata? ok, its just a comment and it means:
"this issue (presidency) requires intervention from God,
we northerns are doing more harm than good to this
country by hiding the illness of mr. president"

[gogannaka]

DB,
Haba.
It is wrong for you to categorically state that the north is hiding Yar'adua's illness.
You have been defeated by the over biased media too.
If you are not aware,it is a northerner that raised the motion to invoke section 145 on Yara'dua.
Majority of the supporters of the motion are northerners.

Yar'aduas ilness as far as i am concerned is not hidden. The man suffered from acute pericarditis and now has chest infections.
His medical report was sent to the acting president on the 17th of February by the President's chief physician Dr Salisu Banye.
Who in this country does not know what is wrong with the president.
He is in a terrible state and he is recuperating and i strongly believe that he should only come out when he is in a better condition.
Why are we acting as if we don't have any compassion.

Shin mun fi son muga Yar'adua ne in a terrible and pitiful state just to satisfy our conscience or to satisfy the media?
Me zai kara mana idan muka gan shi in severe pain and agony.
You know how a sick person can look.

Please DB retract your statement.
The north has never hidden the Presidents sickness.
It is not the north's responsibility to provide his medical record.

[Dan-Borno]

the patriotic gogannaka.
may be you forget easily and its the nature of man to forget
so easily.  the issue is not about compassion, however, it is
about the current political tension in my country.  if you cast
your mind to 2007 when obasanjo was campaigning for yaradua,
rumours were all over that the man is sick, even a primary 3
student can attest to that, however, its the same northerners
who said, its fine, let him go ahead, Allah shike kashewa kuma
shike rayawa.  disclosure is an important instrument that if not
used at the beginning can render the whole transaction null
and void later which is now what we are experiencing.

the PDP caucus met yesterday, the 36 governors of nigeria also
met yesterday and to crown it all, the federal executive council
met yesterday, all resolved that this issue be left as it is, meaning
goodluck should continue as the acting president while yar'adua
recuperates.........till 2011 when the north can still present a
credible candidate for the seat of presidency so as to retain the
in-house agreement entered by the PDP that it is the turn of the
north to rule this country for 8 years.

it is about the north, the north is taking decision hence my earlier
comment which you are now asking me to retract - ko dai abin
da biyu ne?

if 36 governors, ministers, pdp caucus said its fine and ok while our
sovereign constitution says no - i think if i have an option, i will go
with the sovereign constitution.

do you know why you cant exonerate (oops el-ta'alu has warned me
on the use of this word) yourself from this? the likes of sayyadi ruma,
two illustrious inlaws and other kitchen cabinets around mr president
who were recently nicnamed 'cabal' by yar'adu'a minister are full time
northerners who took this issue of presidency too personal to themselves
forgetting that its about the future of this country.

[gogannaka]

DB,
Duk naji me ka fadi.
My question is how can you categorically state that the north is responsible for hiding his health condition?
Sayyadi ruma da Tanimu kurfi ne kawai north.
The media is highly biased if you don't know and i am tired of seeing 'undisclosed,reputable or anonymous sources' blowing everything out of proportion.

I have posted it in one of the threads how Umaru became president.
The same Northerners opposed his institution as president.
It is a northerner that first raised a motion to invoke section 145 (Bashir Mohammed from bauchi) and most suporters were from the north and south-south.

Kuma Yes i agree the governors have met and agreed that it is the north's time to rule.
Is it bad?
The PDP have adopted the zoning formula for producing the nations president.
The north agreed in 1999 to give the leadership to the south.
Then no one complained.
Sai yanzu kuma dan North sun ce lokacin mu ne ya zama laifi.
It is very unfair.
Mu mun zama kashi kenan.....'abokis' we don't know our right.
WHo told them to adopt the zoning formula in the first place if they couldn't hold to it.

FYI the kitchen cabinet exist in every kind of leadership everywhere in the world.
His kitchen cabinet does not only comprise of northerners only.
You have to get the people you trust so that even if you are not around they can hold the fort for you.

[gogannaka]

A showdown between "Yar'adua loyalists" and "pro-Jonathan" ministers was narrowly averted at yesterday's meeting of the Federal Executive Council when Acting President Dr. Goodluck Jonathan approved a paper submitted to him by the so-called "12 wise men." A highly informed source told Daily Trust last night that Jonathan's approval of the "wise men's" paper formally brought to an end all efforts by his "loyalists" to invoke Section 144 of the Constitution and declare the ailing President Umaru Yar'adua permanently incapacitated.
Daily Trust learnt that the comprehensive peace formula that averted the crisis was worked out on Tuesday night and early yesterday by some elderly ministers and a few young ones. Leading the "wise men" was Minister of Niger Delta and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Chief Ufot Ekaette. Also in the team were Defence Minister Major General Godwin Abbe, Education Minister Dr. Sam Egwu, Interior Minister Dr. Shettima Mustapha, Petroleum Resources Minister Dr. Rilwan Lukman and National Planning Minister Dr. Samsudeen Usman. Police Affairs Dr. Ibrahim Lame, FCT Minister Mohamed Adamu Aliero and Minister of State for Interior Chief Demola Seriki were also members.

They held two long meetings at the Ministry of Defence Headquarters in Abuja's Central Business District and later met twice with the acting president to present their suggestions. Jonathan apparently sought some changes to the memo, which the ministers later effected.

One of the bombshell explanations that guided the wise men, a source said, was a statement by Health Minister Professor Babatunde Osetimehin, who said Section 144 of the Constitution was defective from a medical point of view because no doctor could pronounce "permanent incapacity" on any man who is still alive.

The "wise men" told the acting president that there was the need for him "to take full charge" of the government and the country. They said the media campaign launched by Information Minister Professor Dora Akunyili against what she called "a cabal" around Yar'adua has portrayed both the government and the country in bad light.

The ministers then listed 5 resolutions, which they said tallied with the 36 state governors' conclusions the night before. They are that: positions which tally with that of the governors: 1]    As acting president, Dr. Jonathan  is not running a different administration but a continuation of the electoral mandate given to Yar'Adua and himself in 2007, and that he should therefore resist any attempt to invoke Section 144 of the Constitution to declare Yar'adua inform. They said the invocation of Section 144 would fail and "the consequences would be devastating for the polity."

2].    That Professor Dora Akunyii must be called to order for running a campaign against the president and his family, "thus embarrassing the government of which she is supposed to be the spokesperson."

3].   The acting president should not make seeing Yar'adua a precondition for continuing to preside over the affairs of the nation or allow anyone to use it as an opportunity to remove him from power.

4.    The acting president "should be wary of self-serving politicians, especially those from the Niger Delta region "who are making inflammatory statements capable of causing confusion in the country."

5.   The Acting President "should please note that any moves to unseat President Yar'adua can be sure to fail."

Daily Trust learnt that Jonathan accepted all the recommendations and apparently instructed the "pro-Jonathan" to make no move at yesterday's FEC meeting.

Another very reliable source told Daily Trust yesterday that at the state governors' meeting on Tuesday, Bayelsa State Governor Timipre Sylva spoke first and described Yar'adua as "a good president who unfortunately happens to have health challenge." He urged the meeting to take a tough stand on Akunyili. During the governors' briefing of reporters last night, Sylva expressed this view publicly. 

Sources at the meeting said Edo State Governor Adams Oshiomhole spoke next, recalling his personal discussion with Jonathan, where he said he warned that history "should not record him as the person who presided over a council where there was a move to remove his principal." Other Governors who spoke at the meeting said "some people who don't mean well for the country" were behind the campaign to remove Yar'adua.

Daily Trust learnt that the South-South governors produced the consensus formula that Yar'adua remains President while Jonathan acts until he is fit to take over. They said anything to the contrary was akin to a civilian coup.

Incidentally, PDP national executive officers led by the chairman Prince Vincent Ogbulafor pushed the same viewpoint when they were admitted into the PDP governors' meeting, before all the governors met with Jonathan later that night.

Yet another informed source told Daily Trust that the issue of the advisory council appointed by Jonathan on Tuesday came up at the governors' meeting. The source said some governors expressed displeasure and said even under the Obasanjo regime, people were never nominated from the states without consulting with the governors. At least one northern governor also said the fact that both the council's chairman, Lt. General T.Y. Danjuma and his deputy, Professor Ben Nwabueze were Christians was a political mistake.

Another important decision taken at the meeting was that PDP's zoning formula would remain for the 2011 election, in which case the presidency would still go to the North. The implication was Jonathan would not be able to run. While some Governors said that should not be announced publicly, Northern governors argued strongly that the party Chairman should announce it, which Ogbulafor later did.

The governors also decided that Akunyili's statement about probing the army due to the deploying of Guards Brigades men on the night of Yar'adua's return to the country was "reckless and dangerous," saying it was "capable of inciting the public to violence." They also condemned those who were calling for the removal of Chief of Army Staff Lt. General Abdurrahman Dambazau, saying the reckless utterances "are already affecting the military." They took exception to statements by Ijaw leader Chief Edwin Clark calling on Jonathan to sack the military Service Chiefs.

The Governors however condemned last Wednesday's statement by the president's Special Adviser, Media Olusegun Adeniyi, on the day of Yar'adua's return, which addressed the acting president as Vice President. They however said the statement was later corrected and that after that, "no aide or family member of the president had interfered in governance at Aso Rock and that the acting president is fully in charge."

Daily Trust learnt that before yesterday's truce was worked out, the "rebel ministers" planning to push for Yar'adua's ouster were 9 in all, including Foreign Minister Chief Ojo Maduekwe, Mrs. Akunyili, Minister of State for Niger Delta Godsay Orubebe, Minister of Mines and Steel Mrs Diezani Allison-Madueke, Minister of State for Finance Remi Babalola and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Mahmud Yayale Ahmed.

However, a source said, a meeting of the "rebel ministers" at Akunyili's Radio House was discontinued inconclusively when they heard that Jonathan had approved the truce document. Yesterday's FEC meeting was therefore an anti-climax, which ministers patting one another and no crisis occurred at the meeting.
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Maybe we now know who the cabals are.
Akunyili should go....lol