Will PDP fail to win the presidential election in 2011

[gogannaka]

I think GEJ will not make it.
He will not get 2/3 majority and a re-run will be held between the top two contenders--->
Buhari will form a new alliance pact with the ACN and get their votes--->
The Nigerian populace will see a chance of demystifying the incumbency factor and will vote to see them ousted--->
PDP will loose the election.

My thoughts.

[bakangizo]

Good analysis. But I think as it stands, the PDP may ctually nick it. But just. I don't know about the 2/3 majority thing. Or is it 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of the states? In any case, the surest way to beat the PDP is if the opposition can come together. Amma taurin kan Buhari ya hana alliance din ya yiwu.

[Muhsin]

Good analysis. But I think as it stands, the PDP may ctually nick it. But just. I don't know about the 2/3 majority thing. Or is it 25% of votes cast in 2/3 of the states? In any case, the surest way to beat the PDP is if the opposition can come together. Amma taurin kan Buhari ya hana alliance din ya yiwu.

Taurin kan Shekarau dai, despite his being the least popular among the four leading contenders. And I have many proves of that. Am sure that is known to many as many newspapers and other media outlets report.

[gogannaka]

After watching the NN24 presidential debate 3 times now, i am now sceptical at Buhari's comprehension of Nigeria's problems and his solutions.
The only reason why i can vote for him is the belief that he will stand firm so that things don't go awry and he can be accountable,like he said, to the public.

@BKGZ,if all the people they show on TV following Buhari whereever he goes decide to vote for him,then i'm afraid the PDP has some serious rigging to do before they can defeat Buhari/Bakare.

@ Muhsin, Shekarau is just exercising his democratic rights like Buhari and Ribadu.

[bakangizo]

Taurin kan Shekarau dai, despite his being the least popular among the four leading contenders. And I have many proves of that. Am sure that is known to many as many newspapers and other media outlets report.

Easy, muhsin. Easy. Calm down. Comprehend issues first before you respond. Don't let emotions run wild inside you. The much talked about alliance is between CPC and ACN. That's the alliance most Nigerians were counting on. It's got nothing to do with ANPP. In fact CPC/Buhari made it abundantly clear that he will not go enter into any agreement with ANPP. So Shekarau has nothing to do the failure because to start with, he was NOT a party to it. So like I said, take it easy.

After watching the NN24 presidential debate 3 times now, i am now sceptical at Buhari's comprehension of Nigeria's problems and his solutions.
The only reason why i can vote for him is the belief that he will stand firm so that things don't go awry and he can be accountable,like he said, to the public.

@BKGZ,if all the people they show on TV following Buhari whereever he goes decide to vote for him,then i'm afraid the PDP has some serious rigging to do before they can defeat Buhari/Bakare.

Of course Buhari's just a soldier at heart har yanzu. He's living in the past. But ppl will vote for him no matter what. He has this image in peoples' minds that he's the only one capable of doing it. It is, I dare say, something akin to a "blind" followership. Especailly here in the north. From the debate you can see that Shekarau is the most intelligent among them. Plus he has a better comprehension of the issues at hand. Only thing agianst him is he's coming from a party that is not so popular anymore.

At the end of the day, what matters is to send away PDP. SO if it is Buhari that has the ability to pull votes to achieve that, so be it. I welcome it.  But I'm voting for Shekarau.

[nasr19]

At the end of the day, what matters is to send away PDP. SO if it is Buhari that has the ability to pull votes to achieve that, so be it. I welcome it.  But I'm voting for Shekarau.

@BKGZ If you agree that sending PDP away is what matters and Buhari provides the best way of achieving this objective, why waste your vote? If enlightened people like you think along this line, I fear that we'll remain in this vicious cycle. Very disturbing, this illogic. Allah Ya taimake mu, Amin.

[bakangizo]

Yeah, I was expecting this challenge. It is contradictory isn't it? Me saying am voting for shekarau and still recognising buhari as the one with the best chance of pulling votes compared to the others. Please remember I didn't say buhari is the best for me. As far as am concerned, Shekarau is a better candidate. And that's my personal conviction. I meant if buhari win (which is very unlikely under the current situation), I will welcome. Meaning am okay with it. I didn't say we all MUST vote for him to send away PDP. You like him, vote for him. He wins, oaky with. Get that right.

Now to the question of "wasting" my vote. What does that mean? How can doing what one loves be a waste? I voted for buhari in 2003 and 2007. Does that mean I've wasted my votes those times? We all knew (call it sneaky feeling) that OBJ (in 2003) and 'Yar Adua (in 2007) were gonna win. Yet we all voted for buhari. He didn't win. (And don't you start with the "it was rigged" diatribe, cos you have no statistical facts to prove that buhari won). And its the same situation now. We all know that with the opposition parties in disarray, purported alliances failing here and there due to selfish and personal interests, PDP is gonna win again. So why won't you vote for Jonathan, instead of "wasting" your vote on buhari?

Now I have a candidate that I like better than buhari. I haven't felt I wasted my votes for buhari in 2003 and 2007. I'm certainly not wasting my vote for Shekarau, COME WHAT MAY! Talk to me when there's any alliance  btw CPC & ACN, then I know the chances of buhari winning has tremendously increased.

But as it is now, since it is a question of "wasting" votes, let me waste it on the candidate I like most.  And that is Shekarau. If you have any problem with that, too bad. The problem now is people in the north are suffering from the "you MUST like buhari, or you are a devil" malaise.

[nasr19]

The vicious cycle of wasting votes goes like this:

1. Fact: we want PDP out.
2. Opposition parties fail to agree.
3. Voters vote for non-PDP candidates they like most thus splitting the votes.
4. PDP wins.
5. We want PDP out.

Since CPC, ACN, etc fail @ no. 2 it's up to the voters to try and salvage the situation @ no.3 and break this cycle once and for all. The act of voting for your favorite even when you are convinced that he/she has no chances of winning becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.  But if we collectively vote for the candidate with the best chances he/she will probably win. In the even that PDP stills wins, your vote will not have been wasted because you did the best you could.

At the end of the day it all boils down to choosing between which you like most: your candidate (if he's not the one with the best chance against PDP) or throwing PDP out.

[bakangizo]

1. Choosing/supporting/voting/whatever of what one loves can never, never, be a waste.
2. You failed to tell me if I've wasted my vote for voting buhari even when we know he can't win in 2003 etc
3. Buhari can't win in the current situation. The north central alone is not the only electorate in the country, you know.
4. I vote for my favourite because I'm convinced that he's better. You vote for yours due to same reason. Neither you nor I can say for certain that our candidate will win. We only make predictions and projections, and say "this one has an edge over that one". Its nothing more than extra-polation. But we still we go ahead and vote acording to our convictions. And if that's the case,  then we all are "wasting" our votes.

My brother, its all conjecture. And, yeah, self-fulfilling prophesy, like you said.


And what's this "Modified Open Ballot" system the INEC wants to adopt for the election?

[Muhsin]

Taurin kan Shekarau dai, despite his being the least popular among the four leading contenders. And I have many proves of that. Am sure that is known to many as many newspapers and other media outlets report.

Easy, muhsin. Easy. Calm down. Comprehend issues first before you respond. Don't let emotions run wild inside you. The much talked about alliance is between CPC and ACN. That's the alliance most Nigerians were counting on. It's got nothing to do with ANPP. In fact CPC/Buhari made it abundantly clear that he will not go enter into any agreement with ANPP. So Shekarau has nothing to do the failure because to start with, he was NOT a party to it. So like I said, take it easy.

I will dare say you aren't updated on that issue. The marriage proposal, though, is given to CAN by both the ANPP and CPC, yet there has been campaigns by many groups, calling upon all the three mentioned parties to come up together as one. That, even, is the one which many, if not all, people that care about the issue and wants to see PDP consigned, prepares. But it's your Hero who halts any thought and precludes any development and vehemently told the world that he would not step down for anyone. Prior to that mentioning, some news media reported a different story but that one, I can recall, released by his secretary of press, Sule Yau Sule, supersedes the earlier story. The chapter closed!

And, lest you think I'm speaking sentimentally or rather temperamentally, wallahi am not. Now I like Shekarau more than before—I mean recently after the demolition of my business cite. Had the man been popular I would definitely vote him (and, I'm campaigning for his anointed candidate in Kano); but being what he's, I subscribe to what Nasr said, i.e. I won't waste my vote. InshaAllah my vote will be useful as I hope it'll assist in bringing a positive change to Nigeria.

I would lastly like to tell you that you are not alone in that thought. I have a brother, an elderly man, in fact a PhD holder, yet he prepares to vote Shekarau no matter what. We often discuss politics, and I always tell him that I believe Shekarau could do better than Buhari but he cannot make it. Let's simply join a winning team (God willing). And I see my sermon has started having impact on him. BB2011 for real!

[bakangizo]

Okay, muhsin. ;)  I see your point, and I see the merits in your arguments. On the issue of the alliance btw the parties, believe me when I tell you that ANPP/Shekarau has no part to play in the failure, due to the simple reason that they were not in any way involved in the talks. Please recall that ACN and CPC had been having series of meetings for God-knows-how-long, all to no avail. At the end of the day, it failed. Can you remember any btw ANPP & ACN/CPC? Recall again the accusations and counter-accusations btw them - ACN blaming CPC for the failure and vice versa. All this while, ANPP was not involved. In any case, the ANPP was not being treated (and rightly so) as a major force by both ACN & CPC in the alliance. The ACN is now the major opposition party, while the CPC, though not yet tested in elections, is waxing stronger, making forays into ANPP and PDP territories in the north. So like I said, the much touted alliance, and the one people are looking forward to is the ACN/CPC. If that had worked out, ANPP would fall into line, believe me. The ANPP had said on numerous occasions that they are willing to, in their own words, "step down our candidate if we are presented with convincing arguments and superior alternative candidate". With the clout Buhari has, he can bring these parties together. All it takes is a little give and take. A little trade-off. A little compromise here and there. But he won't yield ground. That's his nature. He said he believes CPC can go it alone. Well, good luck to that. I just hope and pray it is not the last we've heard of it. I still harbour a tiny hope that they can come together, even if at the last hour.

Mu dai muna nan muna jira. Ranar zabe muje mu zabi Mallam. In Allah yayi ikon Sa ya samu,  ;D In Buhari ne ya ci  :). In Ribadu ne  :-X In Jatau mai Sa'a ne :'( :(

[Dan-Borno]

Mu mun koma jam'iyyar Buhari, Mai Alkalamin
da bai rubuta karya, CPC taimako ga kowa

I have two wives, a mother and seven dependents who
are eligible to vote.  They all swore in my presence to
cast their vote for Buhari.

@ Bakangizo, you are on your own.  Gogannaka, ka gaya masa
gaskiya mana.


Corrupt officials get ready, I am coming


Buhari at popular Stand during Nigeria's football match


2011 Rally

despite his age, he stands still at the Presidential Debate

[bakangizo]

To DB, Allah Ya zaba mana abinda yafi. Dama ai nasan am on my own, lol. Each to his/her own. Let His will b done. Allah sa dai kar ka koma Ribadu kafin zaben, ka tsare matan ka su rantse sai sun zabi ACN, lol.

[gogannaka]

BKGZ,the wind of change has carried me along.
I have hope in the BB11 ticket.

Everybody is on his own.

The need for change is now.

[nasr19]

Great choice DB. BKGZ, please, please, think it over. This wind of change is for the good of everyone. Do not procrastinate. We need that vote of yours to make the change not only possible, but inevitable.